Over the next decade, the average annual increase in installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States is 45 GW

According to the "2024 US Solar Market Review Report" jointly released by the Solar Energy Industry Association of America (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, the US added 50GW of new installed capacity in 2024, breaking historical records, with a cumulative installed capacity of 235.7GW.

Overall, photovoltaics account for 66% of the country's newly installed power generation capacity, and if energy storage systems are included, the proportion can reach as high as 84%.

Ground power stations and commercial photovoltaics are growing, while the residential photovoltaic market is shrinking

Public utility scale photovoltaic projects have become the main growth force, adding 41.4GW throughout the year. Commercial photovoltaics added 2.12GW of installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 8%, mainly from California, Illinois, New York, and Maine. Community photovoltaics achieved an annual growth rate of 35%, adding 1.74GW, setting a new historical high.

Residential photovoltaics is the only market that has experienced a year-on-year decline, mainly due to the contraction of the California market and high interest rates. The newly installed capacity is only 4.7GW, a year-on-year decrease of 31%, the lowest level since 2021.

Annual average new installed capacity is expected to reach 45GW in the next decade, with policy and economic factors affecting industry expectations

The report predicts that by the end of 2035, under a neutral scenario, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States will exceed 739GW, with an average annual increase of 45GW. However, different policies and economic scenarios will affect the development trajectory of the industry, and the report also makes optimistic and pessimistic scenario predictions:

Optimistic scenario: If the tax credit policy in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) remains unchanged and future guidance policies are favorable to developers, and the Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts (to 2.75% -3.00% by 2027), the cumulative new installed capacity before 2034 will increase by 24% (approximately 118GW) compared to benchmark expectations.

Pessimistic scenario: If the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is withdrawn early and domestic manufacturing capacity growth is limited, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics will decrease by 127GW (a decrease of 25%) compared to the benchmark expectation by 2035.

Last year's record breaking installation volume was driven by multiple solar policies and credit support in the IRA bill, which boosted interest in the solar market, "said Sylvia Levy Martinez, Chief Analyst for North American Utility Photovoltaics at Wood Mackenzie. We still face many challenges, including unprecedented load growth in the power grid. If these favorable policies are cancelled or significantly modified, it will cause great damage to the sustained growth of the industry

Component production capacity exceeds 50GW, local manufacturing accelerates

In 2024, the manufacturing capacity of solar modules in the United States increased by 190% year-on-year, rising from 14.5GW at the end of 2023 to 42.1GW. By early 2025, it had already surpassed 50GW, approaching the demand of the domestic market.

Although some companies have postponed or cancelled their planned battery manufacturing projects for 2024, photovoltaic cell manufacturing has recently accelerated, with Suniva (1GW) and ES Foundry (2GW) battery factories already in operation.

Silicon wafer manufacturing is still a weakness, with no new projects scheduled to start production in 2024. Several manufacturers have reduced or cancelled their original plans. Previously, the Biden administration included silicon wafers for photovoltaics in the 48D CHIPS Act, which is expected to promote the development of this field.